博鳌亚洲论坛 亚洲经济前景及 一体化进程 2023 年度报告 对外经济贸易大学出版社 中国·北京 I 图书在版编目（CIP）数据 博鳌亚洲论坛亚洲经济前景及一体化进程 2023 年度报 告. —北京：对外经济贸易大学出版社，2023.3 ISBN 978-7-5663-2478-8 Ⅰ. ①博… Ⅱ. Ⅲ. ①经济一体化−研究报告−亚洲 −2023 Ⅳ. ①F13 中国国家版本馆 CIP 数据核字（2023）第 026056 号 博鳌亚洲论坛亚洲经济前景及一体化进程 2023 年度报告 责任编辑：张俊娟 出版发行：对外经济贸易大学出版社 社 址：北京市朝阳区惠新东街 10 号 邮购电话：010 − 64492338 网 址：www.uibep.com 发行部电话：010 − 64492342 资源网址：www.uibepresources.com E-mail：uibep@126.com 成品尺寸：215mm×278mm 印 刷：北京博海升彩色印刷有限公司 印 张：8.25 版 次：2023 年 3 月北京第 1 版 字 数：211 千字 印 次：2023 年 3 月第 1 次印刷 定 价：200.00 元 ISBN 978-7-5663-2478-8 II 邮政编码：100029 写作团队成员 ·························································· IX 序言 ······································································ XI 概要 ···································································· XIII 缩略语 ································································· XIX 第 1 篇 亚洲经济前景及政策 第 1 章 亚洲经济前景 ············································ 003 1.1 经济增长仍在复苏轨道 ·············································································· 003 1.2 低收入岗位恢复相对较快 ··········································································· 006 1.3 物价涨幅有望回落 ···················································································· 009 1.4 贸易与投资增长承压 ················································································· 011 1.5 金融市场前景谨慎乐观 ·············································································· 013 第 2 章 亚洲主要经济体经济政策展望 ······················· 019 2.1 外部宏观经济政策环境收紧 ········································································ 019 2.2 财政政策保持积极 ···················································································· 021 2.3 货币政策紧缩力度有望放缓 ········································································ 024 第 3 章 全球经济治理进入“亚洲时刻” ···················· 027 3.1 全面推进国际经济政策协调 ········································································ 027 3.2 着力引领全球可持续发展进程 ····································································· 030 III 第 2 篇 亚洲经济一体化进程 第 4 章 亚洲经济体货物贸易一体化进程 ··················· 035 4.1 亚洲经济体货物贸易一体化 ·········································································035 4.2 亚洲工厂一体化 ························································································047 第 5 章 亚洲经济体服务贸易一体化进程 ··················· 061 5.1 亚洲服务贸易发展进程 ···············································································061 5.2 亚洲主要跨境电商市场的发展与挑战·····························································069 5.3 亚洲重点服务行业依存度分析（以旅游业为例） ·············································073 第 6 章 亚洲经济体直接投资融合度 ························· 079 6.1 亚洲直接投资融合度现状 ············································································079 6.2 亚洲跨境投资展望 ·····················································································084 第 7 章 亚洲经济体金融融合与发展进程 ··················· 085 7.1 亚洲金融市场开放 ·····················································································085 7.2 推动亚洲本币结算合作及区域金融安全网建设 ·················································089 7.3 亚洲绿色债券市场发展及国际金融中心的作用 ·················································093 第 3 篇 亚洲经济热点议题 第 8 章 亚洲经济热点议题 ····································· 099 8.1 亚洲经济体增强抗外部冲击能力 ···································································099 8.2 亚洲产业链重构与韧性 ···············································································103 8.3 气候变化、碳中和与绿色转型 ······································································105 8.4 多边贸易体制改革与区域贸易协定的进展 ·······················································107 编写说明及致谢 ···················································· 111 IV 表 1.1 2022 年第 1 季度—第 3 季度亚洲贸易进出口同比增速 ······························· 011 表 1.2 2022 年亚洲地区部分经济体十年期国债收益率变动情况 ···························· 016 表 2.1 2022 年部分亚洲经济体基准利率调整一览表 ··········································· 024 表 4.1 2017—2021 年部分经济体的亚洲出口依赖度指标····································· 037 表 4.2 2021 年部分亚洲经济体间贸易依存度指标 ·············································· 038 表 4.3 2021 年以亚洲经济体为最大货物贸易伙伴的经济体 ·································· 043 表 4.4 2021 年部分亚太经济体间贸易流向矩阵 ················································· 044 表 4.5 2021 年部分亚太经济体间贸易同比增速 ················································· 044 表 4.6 2021 年亚洲不同地区的商品出口额 ······················································· 046 表 4.7 2021 年亚洲工厂成员中间品贸易相互依存度指数 ····································· 049 表 4.8 2020 年亚洲工厂成员中间品贸易相互依存度指数 ··························