March, 2024 Climate Inaction Report Implications of Climate Inaction across the Water-Agriculture-Energy Nexus and Potential Benefits of Improved Intersectoral 张小可 and Regional Cooperation March, 2024 Abdurasul Kayumov Asif Razzaq Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the CAREC Institute, its funding entities, or its Governing Council. The CAREC Institute does not guarantee accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of its use. The terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with the CAREC Institute’s official terms. The CAREC Institute accepts no liability or responsibility for any party’s use of this publication or for the consequences of any party’s reliance on the information or data provided herein. National consultants -- Mr. Dovlet Jumagulyyev, Mr. Javlonbek Ishchanov, Ms. Liana Baiseit, Mr. Shukhrat Abdullaev, and Ms. Tursunai Usubalieva – provided support in data collection, and Ms. Emma Tong, Research Specialist of the CAREC Institute, provided grant administration support and coordination throughout the process. The CAREC Institute’s Publication Board reviewed the report and provided comments for its further improvement. The research is funded through the technical and financial assistance from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) under TA-6694 REG: Climate Inaction Project: Implications of climate inaction across water-agriculture-energy nexus and potential benefits of improved intersectoral and regional cooperation. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographical area, or by using country names in the report, the authors did not intend to make any judgment as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Boundaries, colors, denominations, or any other information shown on maps do not imply any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries, colors, denominations, or information. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this report, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license. This CC license does not apply to other copyright materials in this report. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. The CAREC Institute cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) Institute 21st Floor, Commercial Building Block 8, Vanke Metropolitan, No. 66 Longteng Road, Shuimogou District, Urumqi, Xinjiang, the PRC, 830028 f: +86-991-8891151 L inkedIn: carec-institute km @carecinstitute.o rg ww w.carecinstitute.org 1 Table of Contents In brief ............................................................................................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction: Overview of the Study and its Purpose ....................................................................................... 7 Approach and Methodology .............................................................................................................................. 8 Regional Context: Climate Change Trends ...................................................................................................... 10 Country Overviews: Impacts and Consequences ............................................................................................ 16 Kazakhstan ................................................................................................................................................... 16 Climate Change’s Impact on Water Resources ....................................................................................... 18 Climate Change’s Impact on Agriculture ................................................................................................. 18 Climate Change’s Impact on Energy ........................................................................................................ 20 Vulnerability to Climate-Related Disaste