投资要点 ➢ ➢ 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 000300.SH ➢ ➢ 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 003010.CJ 一、光伏玻璃是组件的重要封装材料，双玻组件渗透率持续提升 ................................................. 4 1.光伏玻璃是组件的重要封装材料 ................................................................................................................. 4 2.双玻组件渗透率持续提升，光伏玻璃向薄型化发展 .................................................................................... 6 二、光伏装机持续高增，政策调控下全年供需有望趋于动态平衡 ................................................. 7 1.需求端：碳中和&光伏平价&消纳率缓解，光伏装机持续高增 .................................................................... 7 2.供给端：多因素制约光伏玻璃新增产能投放 ............................................................................................... 9 3.供需测算：全年供需趋于动态平衡 ............................................................................................................ 11 三、生产成本下降叠加阶段性供需缺口，行业盈利有望触底回升 ............................................... 12 1.成本端：原料燃料价格回落，生产成本下降 ............................................................................................. 12 2.价格端：阶段性供需缺口有望带来价格上涨 ............................................................................................. 13 3.盈利端：一线企业优势明显，行业盈利有望触底回升............................................................................... 14 四、投资建议 ............................................................................................................................. 15 1.福莱特........................................................................................................................................................ 15 2.旗滨集团 .................................................................................................................................................... 15 五、风险提示 ............................................................................................................................. 17 ........................................................................................................................................4 ........................................................................................................................................5 ........................................................................................................................................5 ...................................................................................................................................................5 ...................................................................................................................................................5 ......................................................................................................6 ..............................................................................6 ........................................................................................................................................7 .............................................................................................................................8 ...................................................................................................8 ...........................................................................................................................9 ...........................................................................................................................................10 ...........................................................................................................................................12 ................................................................................................................................12 ...........................................................................................................................................13 .........................................................................................................................13 .....................................................................................................14 ...............................................................................................................14 2 ......................................................................................................14 ..................................................................................................................15 ..............................................................................................................15 .