Annual Decarbonization Perspective Carbon-Neutral Pathways for the United States 2022 Photo: Roebling Suspension Bridge, Cincinnati, Ohio ABOUT THIS REPORT PREPARED BY This report investigates options for long-term deep decarbonization pathways for the United States. It inaugurates a series of annual updates that aim to move pathways analysis beyond isolated proofs-of-concept towards becoming a practical implementation tool for addressing next-stage challenges in energy and climate change mitigation. Breakthrough Energy Foundation provided financial support for this work. Ben Haley Ryan Jones Jim Williams, University of San Francisco Gabe Kwok Jamil Farbes Jeremy Hargreaves Katie Pickrell Darcie Bentz Andrew Waddell Version 2022-08-19 Emily Leslie, Montara Mountain Energy A special thanks to David Paolella (Breakthrough Energy), Dan Lashof (WRI), Chris Bataille (IDDRI), Kate Larsen (Rhodium Group), and Elena Crete (SDSN) for their feedback and support. Please cite this report as: Haley, B., Jones, R.A., Williams, J.H., Kwok, G., Farbes, J., Hargreaves, J., Pickrell, K., Bentz, D., Waddell, A., Leslie, E., Annual Decarbonization Perspective: Carbon Neutral Pathways for the United States 2022. Evolved Energy Research, 2022. ABOUT EVOLVED ENERGY RESEARCH Evolved Energy Research (EER) is a research and consulting firm focused on questions posed by transformation of the energy economy. Their consulting work and insight, supported by complex technical analyses of energy systems, are designed to support strategic decisionmaking for policymakers, stakeholders, utilities, investors, and technology companies. Copyright © 2022 Evolved Energy Research LLC. All rights reserved. Table of Contents I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................9 Purpose of this Report .......................................................................................................... 9 Policy Relevance .................................................................................................................. 10 II. ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK ........................................................................................11 Scenarios ............................................................................................................................. 11 Sensitivities .......................................................................................................................... 13 III. MODELING UPDATES ............................................................................................14 Data Updates ....................................................................................................................... 14 Transmission and Pipeline Modeling ................................................................................. 16 Nuclear Technologies ......................................................................................................... 19 Industrial Decarbonization .................................................................................................. 20 Storage Technologies ......................................................................................................... 21 Fuel Conversion Technologies ........................................................................................... 22 Oil & Gas Production ........................................................................................................... 24 Electricity Distribution Modeling ......................................................................................... 25 Geospatial Modeling ........................................................................................................... 26 Non-CO2 and Land-Sink Modeling ...................................................................................... 27 IV. HIGH-LEVEL RESULTS ..........................................................................................29 Energy System Decarbonization ......................................................................................... 33 Energy Infrastructure ........................................................................................................... 45 Cost ...................................................................................................................................... 52 V. SCENARIO RESULTS............................................................