In collaboration with Kearney Scaling Up Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply: Overcoming Barriers in Europe, the US and the Middle East INSIGHT REPORT MARCH 2024 Images: Getty Images Contents Foreword 3 Executive summary 4 Introduction 5 1 Scaling SAF for Europe 11 1.1 European situation and challenges 12 1.2 Key actions to take 13 1.2.1 Collaboration 13 1.2.2 Finance 14 1.2.3 Policy 15 2 Scaling SAF for the US 17 2.1 US situation and challenges 18 2.2 Key actions to take 19 2.2.1 Collaboration 19 2.2.2 Finance 21 2.2.3 Policy 22 3 Scaling SAF for the Middle East 23 3.1 Middle East situation and challenges 24 3.2 Key actions to take 24 3.2.1 Cross-industry collaboration 25 3.2.2 Improving efficiency in existing refineries 25 3.2.3 Power-to-liquid deployment 25 3.2.4 Government and regulator engagement 26 3.2.5 Public awareness and education 26 Conclusion: What will it take to scale SAF globally? 27 Contributors 29 Acknowledgements 29 Endnotes 31 Disclaimer This document is published by the World Economic Forum as a contribution to a project, insight area or interaction. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are a result of a collaborative process facilitated and endorsed by the World Economic Forum but whose results do not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum, nor the entirety of its Members, Partners or other stakeholders. © 2024 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. Scaling Up Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply 2 March 2024 Scaling Up Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply: Overcoming Barriers in Europe, the US and the Middle East Foreword Laia Barbarà Head, Climate Strategy, World Economic Forum The World Economic Forum and Airports Council International (ACI) World are co-leading the Airports of Tomorrow initiative, which seeks to address the energy, infrastructure and financing needs of the aviation industry’s transition to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The initiative has convened executives from across the aviation sector with an aim of accelerating the move towards increased sustainability and resilience. This report presents key findings from our work on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in 2023. We showcase critical technologies for SAF scaling and their advantages, as well as the greatest challenges at this time. Future SAF volumes have been analysed and optimal global production hubs identified to satisfy this emerging demand. Furthermore, we focused on adequate regulation Claudia Galea Global Sustainability Director, Kearney and policy to enable global SAF scaling, as well as insights and important themes for specific countries and regions. The report focuses on three regions – Europe, the US and the Middle East – and contains insights from stakeholders in the aviation and energy industries as well as the public sector. The main goal is to provide a comprehensive overview of the existing challenges for SAF adoption and highlight which actions stakeholders along the entire value chain should take to move towards 10% SAF in 2030 and subsequent sector decarbonization by 2050. This work was developed by the World Economic Forum in partnership with Kearney, ACI World, Airbus and Arup. We thank our partners and industry sponsors for their support. Scaling Up Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply 3 Executive summary The aviation sector faces challenges in scaling SAF, requiring collective efforts to accelerate technology deployment, secure demand certainty and establish conducive regulatory frameworks. Air travel contributes 2–3% of global CO2 emissions,1 primarily due to aircraft fossil fuel consumption. Furthermore, the projected demand for aviation fuel could surge by over 50% by 2050 compared to 2019, increasing this share significantly.2 Despite recognition of the importance of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in decarbonizing the industry, global production remains insufficient, with announced projects covering only 30–40% of the aspirational 10% of global fuel supply in 2030. Solving this supply shortage requires deploying existing and developing novel technologies in regions with favourable conditions. Appropriate regulations and policies are also needed to create a SAF market given that SA