Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized JOBS WORKING PAPER Issue No. 79 Heading Towards 1.5ºC – Impacts on Labor Demand in Selected Countries Public Disclosure Authorized Ulrike Lehr and Hector Politt HEADING TOWARDS 1.5⁰C – IMPACTS ON LABOR DEMAND IN SELECTED COUNTRIES ULRIKE LEHR AND HECTOR POLITT 1 © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA. Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org. Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Ulrike Lehr and Hector Politt. 2024. “Heading Towards 1.5⁰c – Impacts on Labor Demand in Selected Countries” World Bank, Washington, DC. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Images: © World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. 2 Heading towards 1.5⁰C – impacts on labor demand in selected countries By Ulrike Lehr and Hector Politt1 Contents 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 6 2. Background and literature .................................................................................................................... 7 3. Modeling approach and data ................................................................................................................ 9 4. 3.1. The MINDSET model ..................................................................................................................... 9 3.2. Scenario description.................................................................................................................... 11 3.2.1. Policy basket and country selection.................................................................................... 11 3.2.2. Econo