United Nations Development Programme PLANNING FOR A NET-ZERO FUTURE: Guidance on how to develop a Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) April 2024 Planning for a net-zero future Authors: Xander van Tilburg and Alexander Ochs (SD Strategies), Sangji Lee (UNDP) Editor: Lisa Baumgartner (UNDP) Designer: Pierluigi Rauco Cover photo: © UNDP Lebanon, Rana Sweidan Technical reviewers and contributors UNDP: Aniko Polo-Akpisso, Richemond Assie, Mary Ann Bayang, Jasmin Blessing, Artak Baghdasaryan, Catherine Diam-Valla, Lorenzo Eguren, Leticia Guimaraes, Chibulu Luo, Snezana Marstijepovic, Susanne Olbrisch, Julie Teng, Viktoriia Yashkina, James Vener and Omar Zemrag External reviewers: Amanda McKee (NDC Partnership), Siddharth Pathak (2050 Pathways Platform) and Hans Verolme (SD Strategies) About UNDP UNDP is the leading United Nations organization fighting to end the injustice of poverty, inequality, and climate change. Working with our broad network of experts and partners in 170 countries, we help nations to build integrated, lasting solutions for people and planet. Learn more at undp.org or follow at @UNDP. About UNDP’s Climate Promise UNDP’s Climate Promise is the largest global offer on NDC support, covering over 120 countries and territories, representing 80 percent of all developing countries globally – including 40 least developed countries, 28 small island developing states, and 14 high emitters – to enhance their Nationally Determined Contributions under the global Paris Agreement. Delivered in collaboration with a wide variety of partners, it is the world’s largest offer of support for the enhancement of climate pledges. Learn more at www.climatepromise.undp.org and follow at @UNDPClimate. UN disclaimer The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations, including the UN Development Programme, or UN Member States. Copyright ©UNDP 2024. All rights reserved. One United Nations Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USA. ii Table of contents Acronyms and abbreviations iv Preface v 1. LT-LEDS in perspective 2 1.1 Motivations and incentives for developing an LT-LEDS 2 1.2 LT-LEDS and the Paris Agreement 3 1.3 Building blocks: getting started and improving over time 5 2. How do you prepare for developing an LT-LEDS? 8 2.1 Leadership, mandate, and governance 8 2.2 Mapping the existing policy landscape 10 2.3 Process organization and stakeholder engagement 12 2.4 Analytical support 14 3. What are the contents of an LT-LEDS? 17 3.1 Context and scope 18 3.2 Ambition and vision 18 3.3 Pathways and scenarios 20 3.4 Sector transformations and priorities 22 3.5 Finance and investments 26 3.6 Monitoring and revision 28 3.7 Adaptation and resilience 30 3.8 An equitable, fair, and just transition 31 4. How do you implement an LT-LEDS? 35 4.1 Institutional and legal arrangements 36 4.2 Policy coordination and priorities 38 4.3 Local governments and non-state actors 40 4.4 Life cycle: what is next? 42 5. LT-LEDS good practices and lessons learned 45 Annex 1: Further reading 47 Annex 2: Deep dive on key transition levers 48 References 61 iii Planning for a net-zero future Acronyms and abbreviations ADB Asian Development Bank IEA International Energy Agency AFD Agence Française de Développement IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use IMF International Monetary Fund ANRC African Natural Resources Center ANRC African Natural Resources Center BECCS Bio Energy from Carbon Capture and Storage IPCC International Panel on Climate Change C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group IPPU Industrial Processes and Product Use CAN Climate Action Network IPU Inter-Parliamentary Union CAT Climate Action Tracker IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency CBAM Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism JETP Just Energy Transition Partnership CCFF Climate Change Financing Framework LDC Least Developed Country CCS Carbon Capture and Storage CCU Carbon Capture and Use LEDS-GP Low Emission Development Strategy Global Partnership CDM Clean Development Mechanism LNOB Leave No One Behind CDR CO2 reduction LT-LEDS Long-Term Low