Contents Acronyms and abbreviations 6 Foreword 7 Acknowledgements 8 Executive summary 10 Introduction 14 Part I. The state of knowledge on transboundary climate risks 17 Transboundary climate risks: definition and recent trends 18 Part II. Assessing 10 globally significant transboundary climate risks 29 Introduction 32 Chapter 2.1. Transboundary climate risks for terrestrial shared natural resources 33 Chapter 2.2. Managing transboundary ocean resources under a changing climate 40 Chapter 2.3. Transboundary climate risks on agricultural commodities and food security 46 Chapter 2.4. The globalization of local risks through globally interconnected industrial supply chains 52 Chapter 2.5. Transboundary climate risks in the energy sector 59 Chapter 2.6. Transboundary climate risks and finance 64 Chapter 2.7. The transboundary climate risk of infectious diseases 71 Chapter 2.8. Transboundary climate risk and human mobility 78 Chapter 2.9. Transboundary climate risks and livelihoods 84 Chapter 2.10. Transboundary climate risks and wellbeing 91 Conclusion 96 CONTENTS 3 Part III. The solution space to managing transboundary climate risks 97 Introduction 98 3.1 Policies and governance to manage transboundary climate risks 99 3.1.1 Transboundary climate risks under the UNFCCC 99 3.1.2. Regional perspectives on transboundary climate risks and governance arrangements 101 3.1.3. National adaptation plans to identify and assess transboundary climate risks 103 3.2 Knowledge for better governance: the assessment and tracking of transboundary climate risks 103 3.2.1 Opportunities for innovative research on transboundary climate risks 104 3.2.2. Designing indicators to track transboundary climate risks 104 3.2.3. Exploring the future of transboundary climate risks 107 3.2.4. The use of foresight and scenario exercises to design policy pathways to address transboundary climate risks 109 Conclusions 4 THE GLOBAL TRANSBOUNDARY CLIMATE RISK REPORT 113 2023 CONTENTS 5 Acronyms and abbreviations AWB CBFS CCRIF CDC CSO ECDC ECOWAS EEZ EIB ENTSO-E FDI FSB GDP GFCS IEA IHR ILO IMF IOM IPCC KSLCDI MECIDS MNC NAP NDC NGFS NGO PAHO PNA SDGs SEI SIDS TCFD UNFCCC UNHCR VDS WCPO WFP WHO WTO 6 Adaptation Without Borders Central banks and financial supervisors Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Civil society organization European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control Economic Community of West African States Exclusive Economic Zone European Investment Bank European network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity Foreign Direct Investment Financial Stability Board Gross Domestic Product Global Framework on Climate Services International Energy Agency International Health Regulations International Labour Organization International Monetary Fund International Organization for Migration Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Kailash Sacred Landscape Conservation and Development Initiative Middle East Consortium for Infectious Disease Surveillance Multinational corporation National Adaptation Plan Nationally-determined contributions Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System Non-governmental organization Pan-American Health Organization Parties to the Nauru Agreement Sustainable Development Goals Stockholm Environment Institute Small-island Developing States Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Vessel Day Scheme Western and Central Pacific Ocean World Food Programme World Health Organization World Trade Organization THE GLOBAL TRANSBOUNDARY CLIMATE RISK REPORT 2023 Foreword Teresa Ribera 1 The world’s economies, societies and ecosystems are deeply interconnected, and we are seeing how climate shocks can have cascading consequences that cross countries and continents, sectors and systems. However, while we are experiencing more cases, we are still unclear on how to treat such climate interconnectedness in a comprehensive way. We have made huge progress over the last decades to enhance collective action on greenhouse gas emissions, but on climate adaptation, we are still looking for a way to create such a sense of collective action, beyond the important funding lens. This report by the Adaptation Without Borders partnership provides us with a first collection