CHILDREN DISPLACED IN A CHANGING CLIMATE preparing for a future already underway CHILDREN DISPLACED IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Acknowledgements This United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) publication was developed jointly by UNICEF’s Programme Division; Division of Data and Analytics, Planning and Monitoring; and Division of Global Communication and Advocacy, in partnership with Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) and with support from the Patrick J. McGovern Foundation. Overall leadership and guidance: Verena Knaus, Danzhen You Conceptualization, project management and narrative development: Laura Healy Data analysis and research: Jan Beise, Clémence Leduc, Sylvain Ponserre Production support: Ilaria Lanzoni Reporting: Annabelle Bodmer-Roy, Tess Ingram Fact-checking: Yasmine Hage Copy-editing: Naomi Lindt, Ross Stewart Design and data visualizations: Blossom.it Special thanks to IDMC for its partnership and collaboration, especially Alexandra Bilak, Christelle Cazabat, María Teresa Miranda Espinosa and Sylvain Ponserre. Thank you to the Patrick J. McGovern Foundation for its contributions and support, especially Sarah Grady, Nikita Japra, Claudia Juech, Ben Mann, Alissa Orlowsky, Frank Ortiz, Ananthan (A.B.) Srinivasan and Chelsey Walden-Schreiner. This report benefited from valuable contributions from many colleagues. Particular thanks go to Sanjay Wijesekera, Director of the Programme Division; Genevieve Boutin, Deputy Director of the Programme Division; Vidhya Ganesh, Director of the Division 2 of Data, Analytics, Planning and Monitoring (DAPM); João Pedro Azevedo, Chief Statistician and Deputy Director of DAPM; Mark Hereward, Chief Data Officer and Associate Director of DAPM; Naysan Sahba, Director of Division of the Global Communication and Advocacy; Paloma Escudero, Senior Advisor on Advocacy, Climate Change and Gautam Narasimhan, Global Lead on Climate, Energy, Environment and Disaster Risk Reduction. Many colleagues across UNICEF provided critical inputs, including: David Anthony, Marta Arias, Annabelle BodmerRoy, Jan Burdziej, Cristina Colon, Larissa Demel, Ndeye Marie Diop, Martin Eklund, Nicole Ethier, Tsedeye Girma, Tess Ingram, Josiah Kaplan, Nupur Kukrety, Patrick Laurent, Hani Mansourian, Farai Maxwell Marumbwa, Jason Miks, Bo Viktor Nylund, Omar Robles, Jeremy Sprigge, Jen Stephens, Ramya Subrahmanian, Lucy Szaboova, Ingrid Sanchez Tapia, Anne Marie Turmine, Amy Wickham, Vanessa Anne Wyeth, Kevin Wyjad and colleagues in regional offices, country offices and national committees. Thanks also to the following partners for their support: Yoma, Goodwall, Robert Bosch Stiftung, the United Nations Network on Migration, the Office of the Special Advisor on Solutions for Internal Displacement, the Global Centre for Climate Mobility and others who shared their insights and solutions. Special thanks go to the Migration Youth and Children Platform of the Major Group for Children and Youth, YOUNGO, Resilient 40 Africa and the many young people who participated in the Goodwall Climate Mobility Challenge and Africa Climate Mobility Initiative Youth Forum. CHILDREN DISPLACED IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Contents 01. The faces of child displacement  3 6 02. Mapping disaster-related displacements of children  11 03. The hazards  15 04. Analysing future risk  39 05. Taking action  49 Annex: Key terms and concepts  57 Endnotes  59 CHILDREN DISPLACED IN A CHANGING CLIMATE The link between climate change and displacement is complex. Yet it is clearer than ever that the climate is shifting patterns of displacement.1 Although weather events, such as floods and storms, are natural phenomena and a single event cannot be directly attributed to climate change, there is widespread consensus that human-induced climate change is affecting the frequency, intensity, geographic range, duration, and timing of extreme weather events. Therefore, no weather is entirely ‘natural’ anymore, but rather occurs in the context of a changing climate. Large-scale disasters, which in the past, occurred only occasionally, are now more frequent. In fact, with every additional one degree Celsius of warming, the global risks of displacement from flooding are projected to rise by approximately 50 per cent.2 Millions of children are already being driven from their homes by weatherrelated events, exacerbated by climate change. Decisions to move can be forced and abrupt in the face of disaster, or the result of pre-