2 China's Climate Transition: Outlook 2023 27 November 2023 Authors Lauri Myllyvirta, Qi Qin, Chengcheng Qiu, Xinyi Shen This report was published by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) with the support of the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s (Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung) global head office in Berlin, Germany. Contributors Xunpeng Shi, Muyi Yang, Shurui Wang Editor Kathryn Miller, Hannah Ekberg Translator Xiaoying You Designer Wendi Wu Photo by Li Yang on Unsplash Project coordinator Ella Soesanto, Xinyi Shen Acknowledgements CREA gratefully acknowledges the support, feedback, and insight received from Dr. Paul Kohlenberg and Jörg Haas. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and should not be attributed to any of the aforementioned. i About CREA The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) is an independent research organisation focused on revealing the trends, causes, and health impacts, as well as the solutions, to air pollution. CREA uses scientific data, research and evidence to support the efforts of governments, companies and campaigning organisations worldwide in their efforts to move towards clean energy and clean air. We believe that effective research and communication are the key to successful policies, investment decisions and advocacy efforts. CREA was founded in 2019 in Helsinki, Finland and has staff in several European and Asian countries. About the Heinrich Böll Foundation The Heinrich Böll Foundation (Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung) is a public funded institute in Germany for green visions and projects with an international network encompassing partner projects in approximately 60 countries. The Foundation's primary task is political awareness building in Germany and abroad to promote democratic will, socio-political commitment and international understanding. It is guided by the basic political values of ecology, democracy, solidarity, and nonviolence. The Foundation currently has offices in more than 30 countries around the world. Disclaimer This publication is produced by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (hereinafter referred to as ‘CREA’) headquartered in Finland, in accordance with the local laws and regulations. CREA is a global research organisation focused on promoting clean energy and studying solutions to air pollution. CREA is politically independent. The designations employed and the presentation of the material on maps contained in this report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The content and expression of views and opinions expressed in this publication are based on those of the authors of the independent scientific analysis and study during the time of research, and they do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position, or represent the views or opinions, of CREA, or its members and/or funders. CREA does not guarantee the timeliness, accuracy and completeness of the information contained in this publication. This publication is ONLY for the purposes of information sharing, environmental protection and public interests. Therefore, this publication should not be used as the reference of any investment or other decision-making process. CREA assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this publication. This report is originally written in English and translated into Chinese subsequently. In case of a discrepancy, the English version prevails. ii Contents Executive summary 1 1 Introduction 4 2 Understanding China’s greenhouse gas emissions 8 2.1 The meteoric rise of emissions 2.2 China’s emissions in an international context 3 Pathways to carbon neutrality for China and the world 8 11 15 3.1 Overview 15 3.2 Global pathways 17 3.2.1 Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) 17 3.2.2 Climate Action Tracker (CAT) 19 3.2.3 International Energy Agency (IEA) 19 3.3 Pathways for China 20 3.3.1 Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development (ICCSD) 23 3.3.2 School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University (SENR-RMU) 23 3.3.3 Institute of Atmospheric Environment, China Academy of Environmental Planning (CAEP-IAE) and Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute (EPPEI) 24 3.3.4 North China Electric Power University (NCEPU) and Peking Un