WORLD ENERGY TRANSITIONS OUTLOOK 2023 1.5° C PATHWAY VO LUM E 2 © IRENA 2023 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of the author(s) as the source and IRENA as the copyright holder. Material in this publication attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. ISBN: 978-92-9260-527-8 CITATION IRENA (2023), World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023: 1.5°C Pathway, Volume 2, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Available for download: www.irena.org/publications For further information or to provide feedback: publications@irena.org ABOUT IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) serves as the principal platform for international co-operation; a centre of excellence; a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge; and a driver of action on the ground to advance the transformation of the global energy system. An intergovernmental organisation established in 2011, IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy and geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. www.irena.org DISCLAIMER This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers, provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and they accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed, and the presentation of material herein, do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. WORLD ENERGY TRANSITIONS OUTLOOK 2023 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was developed under the guidance of Rabia Ferroukhi (ex-Director, IRENA Knowledge Policy and Finance Centre) and Michael Renner, and was authored by Gondia Sokhna Seck, Bishal Parajuli (IRENA) and Xavier Casals (consultant). The report benefited from reviews and inputs from Ute Collier (Acting Director, IRENA Knowledge, Policy and Finance Centre), Elizabeth Press, Roland Roesch, Ricardo Gorini, Michael Taylor, Nicholas Wagner, Mengzhu Xiao (IRENA) and Álvaro López-Peña (consultant). The modelling results were provided by Alistair Smith, An Vu, Ha Bui, Jamie Pirie, Jon Stenning, Philip Summerton and Sachin Gulati (Cambridge Econometrics). IRENA would like to thank the Government of Germany for supporting IRENA in the work that formed the basis of this report. For further information or to provide feedback, publications@irena.org 3 WORLD ENERGY TRANSITIONS OUTLOOK 2023 FOREWORD As the world prepares for the 28 th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP28), ever more frequent and devastating weather events leave no doubt that the energy transition must accelerate immediately to avoid the catastrophic effects of climate change. Volume 1 of the World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023, released earlier this year, illustrated the pathway to a 1.5°C future in detail, and identified both progress and gaps across sectors and geographies. IRENA’s work has long emphasised the need for a holistic approach to the energy transition, encompassing not only technological developments, but also socio-economic aspects. This requires an understanding of the far-ranging transformations that will unfold as the world moves from fossil fuels to renewables and greater energy efficiency. This volume discusses the socio-economic impacts of IRENA’s Paris Agreement-compliant 1.5˚C Scenario, compared to the Planned Energy Scenario, using the scenario roadmaps fr