Assessing the Implications of a Global Net-Zero Transition for Developing Asia Insights from Integrated Assessment Modeling Global climate goals will not be attainable unless Asia’s growth becomes much less carbon-intensive. This paper uses a global integrated assessment model to assess how developing Asia would develop in a world that meets Paris Agreement temperature goals. It finds that a profound transition is needed, with a rapidly decarbonized power sector and a dramatic drop in land-use emissions. Benefits are found to be far in excess of costs for Asia if an efficient set of decarbonization policies is deployed. About the Asian Development Bank ASSESSING THE IMPLICATIONS OF A GLOBAL NET-ZERO TRANSITION FOR DEVELOPING ASIA ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members —49 from the region. Its main instruments for helping its developing member countries are policy dialogue, loans, equity investments, guarantees, grants, and technical assistance. INSIGHTS FROM INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELING Johannes Emmerling, Lara Aleluia Reis, Laurent Drouet, David A. Raitzer, and Manisha Pradhananga NO. 709 December 2023 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org ADB ECONOMICS WORKING PAPER SERIES ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK ADB Economics Working Paper Series Assessing the Implications of a Global Net-Zero Transition for Developing Asia: Insights from Integrated Assessment Modeling Johannes Emmerling, Lara Aleluia Reis, Laurent Drouet, David A. Raitzer, and Manisha Pradhananga No. 709 | December 2023 The ADB Economics Working Paper Series presents research in progress to elicit comments and encourage debate on development issues in Asia and the Pacific. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of ADB or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Johannes Emmerling (johannes.emmerling@eiee.org) is a senior scientist at the European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE) and co-lead of the Low Carbon Pathways Unit. Lara Aleluia Reis (lara.aleluia@eiee.org) is a scientist at EIEE. Laurent Drouet (laurent.drouet@cmcc.it) is a senior scientist at EIEE. David A. Raitzer (draitzer@adb.org) and Manisha Pradhananga (mpradhananga@adb.org) are economists at the Economic Research and Development Impact Department, Asian Development Bank.  Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2023 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2023. ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (electronic) Publication Stock No. WPS230587-2 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS230587-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this publication, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions and terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing