ECECP Investment and Technologies for Net-zero Carbon Infrastructure ECECP净零碳基础设施投资和关键技术研究 State Grid Energy Research Institute 12 October 2023 国网能源研究院有限公司 2023年10月12日 Contents I CCUS 碳捕集、利用与封存 2 PtX 电转其他能源 2 (1) Importance of CCUS 碳捕集、利用与封存技术的定位 CCUS is the only technological option to realize low-carbon utilization of fossil energy. CCUS 是目前实现化石能源低碳化利用的唯一技术选择。 • • It is estimated that by 2050, fossil energy will account for 10%-15% of China's energy consumption. 到2050 年，化石能源仍将扮演重要角色，占中国能源消费比例的10%~15%。 CCUS can maintain the flexibility of power system to realize carbon neutrality. CCUS 是碳中和目标下保持电力系统灵活性的主要技术手段。 • • By avoid an early phasing out of coal-fired power stations, the necessary support for system inertia and frequency control is then guaranteed when facing the great volatility of renewable energy and potential seasonal power shortages. 火电加装CCUS是具有竞争力的重要技术手段，可实现近零碳排放，提供稳定清洁低碳电力，平 衡可再生能源发电的波动性，并在避免季节性或长期性的电力短缺方面发挥惯性支撑和频率控制 等重要作用。 3 (1) Importance of CCUS 碳捕集、利用与封存技术的定位 CCUS is a feasible technology option for hard-to-abate sectors, like steel and cement. CCUS 是钢铁水泥等难以减排行业低碳转型的可行技术选择。 • • After implementing measures like efficiency improvement, raw material substitution, and etc, it is estimated that 34% of carbon emissions in the steel industry and 48% of carbon emissions in the cement industry are hard to abate. 预计到2050年，钢铁行业通过采取工艺改进、效率提升、能源和原料替代等常规减排方案后，仍 将剩余34%的碳排放量，即使氢直接还原铁(DRI)技术取得重大突破，剩余碳排放量也超过8%。 水泥行业通过采取其他常规减排方案后，仍将剩余48%的碳排放量。 CCUS coupled with renewable energy could realize negative emissions. CCUS 与新能源耦合的负排放技术是实现碳中和目标的重要技术保障。 • • CCUS coupling with bio-energy, usually referred to as BECCS, could realize negative emssions. Negative emission technologies can neutralize greenhouse gas emissions and provide important support for achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. BECCS及其他负排放技术可中和该部分温室气体排放，推动温室气体净零排放，为实现碳中和目 标提供重要支撑。 4 (2) CCUS projects in China 碳捕集、利用与封存项目开展情况 CCUS Projects in China  There are about 40 CCUS projects that are in operation or under construction in China. The capture capacity is around 3 million tons/year and the cumulative storage capacity is 2 million tons.  中 国 已 投 运 或 建 设 中 的 CCUS 示范项目约为40个，捕集能力 300万吨/年，累计封存200万 吨CO2。 CCUS projects in China Source: China CCUS Annual Report 2021. (2) CCUS projects in China 碳捕集、利用与封存项目开展情况 CCUS Projects in China  The existing CCUS pilot demonstration projects focus on demonstrating carbon capture technology and EOR technology. Large-scale, full-chain projects are rare.  现有的CCUS试点示范项目主要关 注展示碳捕集技术和EOR技术。大 规模、完整链条的项目相对较少。  China has the design capability of a large-scale, full-process system and is actively preparing for the full-chain CCUS industrial clusters.  中国具备大规模、全过程系统的设 计能力，并积极准备建设完整链条 的CCUS工业集群。 CCUS projects in China Source: China CCUS Annual Report 2021. (3) CCUS technology costs in China 技术成本情况 China's CCUS demonstration projects are small in scale and expensive. The cost of CCUS mainly includes economic costs and environmental costs. 中国的CCUS示范项目规模较小且成本较高。CCUS的成本主 要包括经济成本和环境成本。 Economic costs include fixed costs and operating costs. 经济成本包括固定成本和运营成本。 Environmental costs include environmental risks and energy consumption. 环境成本包括环境风险和能 源消耗。 2025-2060年CCUS技术的成本 Cost for CCUS Technologies in 2025-2060 Year 燃烧前捕集 Pre- combustion 捕集技术 燃烧后捕集 PostCapture combustion 富氧燃烧 Oxy-fuel combustion 罐车 Truck 运输Transport (RMB/t·km) 管道 Pipeline 封存 Storage Source: China CCUS Annual Report 2021. 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 2060 100-180 90-130 70-80 50-70 30-50 20-40 230-310 190-280 160-220 100-180 80-150 70-120 300-480 160-390 130-320 110-230 90-150 80-130 0.9-1.4 0.8 50-60 0.8-1.3 0.7 40-50 0.7-1.2 0.6 35-40 0.6-1.1 0.5 30-35 0.5-1.1 0.45 25-30 0.5-1 0.4 20-25 7  China's thermal power industry will reach a peak for unit renewal from 2035 to 2045. Considering the development of carbon capture technology, before 2035, the firstgeneration capture technology should be the mainstream while after 2035, thesecond generation technology should be the mainstream.  2035年前后将是捕集技术实现代际升级的关 键时期。我国火电行业在2035-2045年间将迎 来机组更新高峰。综合考虑火电行业的发展规 律与捕集技术的发展趋势，2035年前应以采 用第一代捕集技术的存量火电机组改造为主， 2035年后应以采用二代捕集技术的新建火电 机组为主。 碳捕集技术现状 Best time for CCS retrofit Energy consumption for firstgeneration capture technology Energy consumption for second-generation capture technology Energy Consumtion (3) Carbon capture technology in China Cost for first-generation capture technology Cost for second-generation captur