An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in China INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Source: IEA. All rights reserved. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org IEA member countries: IEA association countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States Brazil China India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in China Abstract Abstract In September 2020, President Xi Jinping announced that the People’s Republic of China will “aim to have CO2 emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060”. Amid the growing wave of governments around the world setting targets for reaching net zero emissions, no pledge is as significant as China’s. The country is the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, accounting for one-third of global CO2 emissions. The pace of China’s emissions reductions will be an important factor in global efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. This report, An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in China, responds to the Chinese government’s invitation to the International Energy Agency to cooperate on long-term strategies by setting out pathways for reaching carbon neutrality in China’s energy sector. It shows that achieving carbon neutrality fits with China’s broader development goals, such as increasing prosperity and shifting towards innovation-driven growth. The first pathway in this Roadmap – the Announced Pledges Scenario – reflects the enhanced targets China announced in 2020. The report also explores the implications of a faster transition – the Accelerated Transition Scenario – and the socio-economic benefits it would bring beyond those associated with reducing the impact of climate change. This Roadmap examines the technology challenges and opportunities that this new phase of the clean energy transition will bring for China’s development, with a focus on long-term needs. The technology innovations required in the Chinese context are a key in-depth focus area. The report concludes with a series of policy PAGE | 3 IEA, 2021. considerations to inform China’s energy debate. An Energy Sector Roadmap to Carbon Neutrality in China Acknowledgements Acknowledgements, contributors and credits This report was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy Division within the Directorate on Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks of the International Energy Agency. The study was designed and directed by Timur Gül (Head of the Energy Technology Policy Division). The analysis and production was co-ordinated by Araceli Fernández Pales (Head of the Technology Innovation Unit) and Peter Levi. The main contributors were Thibaut Abergel (buildings, CO2 emissions decomposition), Praveen Bains (bioenergy, geospatial analysis), Simon Bennett (innovation policy), Niels Berghout (CCUS), Jose Miguel Bermudez Menendez (hydrogen), Cyril Cassisa (climate and energy policy), Xiushan Chen (climate and energy policy), Elizabeth Connelly (transport), Chiara Delmastro (buildings, investment), Alexandre Gouy (industry), Insa Handschuch (climate policy), Zoe Hungerford (electricity system flexibility), Jean-Baptiste Le Marois (innovation policy), Hana Mandová (industry), Rebecca McKimm (China policy), Rachael Moore (CCUS), Leonardo Paoli (transport, batteries), Faidon Papadimoulis (data management), Uwe Remme (energy supply),