The JETPs of South Africa and Indonesia A Blueprint for the Move Away from Coal? ANNIK A SEILER · HANNAH BROWN · SAMUEL MAT THEWS Abstract The Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) are a novel approach to intensifying ongoing efforts toward carbon neutrality, combining country-led strategies to decarbonize the energy sector and addressing development priorities resulting from the ensuing structural transformation with focused, long-term, and plurilateral partnerships. The launches of the $8.5 billion JETP for South Africa in 2021 and the $20.0 billion JETP for Indonesia in 2022 provide momentum for this effort. However, the legacies of coal-based power and modest renewable energy deployment in both countries present key challenges in the areas of political economy, policy alignment, finance, and supply chain development. This paper consolidates available information about these two JETPs and analyzes the approaches taken by South Africa and Indonesia, with the aim of providing a thought framework for these JETPs. It seeks to identify risks and gaps that could obstruct these JETPs’ advancement and to assess whether these JETPs can serve as blueprints for other countries looking to accelerate their move away from coal. Further, this paper highlights complementary action that could enhance the effectiveness of these JETPs and guide the development of similar partnerships in the future. The paper finds that while the JETPs for South Africa and Indonesia appear to deliver a blueprint for moving away from coal in their respective contexts, barriers, risks, and gaps call into question whether the targets can be delivered at the planned pace and scale. POLICY PAPER 302 • J U LY 202 3 The JETPs of South Africa and Indonesia: A Blueprint for the Move Away from Coal? Annika Seiler,* Hannah Brown, and Samuel Matthews Center for Global Development On secondment from the Asian Development Bank * Annika Seiler, Hannah Brown, and Samuel Matthews. 2023. “The JETPs of South Africa and Indonesia: A Blueprint for the Move Away from Coal?” CGD Policy Paper 302. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development. https://www.cgdev.org/publication/jetps-south-africa-and-indonesia-blueprint-move-away-coal CENTER FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2055 L Street, NW Fifth Floor Washington, DC 20036 1 Abbey Gardens Great College Street London SW1P 3SE www.cgdev.org Center for Global Development. 2023. The Center for Global Development works to reduce global poverty and improve lives through innovative economic research that drives better policy and practice by the world’s top decision makers. Use and dissemination of this Policy Paper is encouraged; however, reproduced copies may not be used for commercial purposes. Further usage is permitted under the terms of the Creative Commons License. The views expressed in CGD Policy Papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the board of directors, funders of the Center for Global Development, or the authors’ respective organizations. Contents Executive summary.............................................................................................................................1 Abbreviations........................................................................................................................................3 Introduction...........................................................................................................................................4 Unique country contexts of the JETP plans..............................................................................6 Macro-economic background............................................................................................6 Recent climate and just energy policies........................................................................10 Sector governance challenges to the renewable energy deployment............ 13 Just transition challenges....................................................................................................16 Opportunities for just energy transition through value addition and value chain development...........................................................................................22 Potential co-benefits from a phasedown of coal..................................................... 24 Progress toward universal access to reliable and affordable electricity....... 24 Discussions and key takeaways of JETP features.........................................