Republic of Bulgaria Ministry of Foreign Affairs D I P L O M AT I C INSTITUTE Energy and Climate Diplomacy FOREIGN AFFAIRS RESEARCH PAPERS 17 June 2023 REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA Ministry of Foreign Affairs Diplomatic Institute ENERGY AND CLIMATE DIPLOMACY FOREIGN AFFAIRS RESEARCH PAPERS 17 June, 2023 This Journal is issued with the support of: Editor-in-chief: Slavtcho Neykov Editor: Grigor Monovski Prepress and Print: St. George Publishing Ltd. Graphic Design and Cover: St. George Publishing Ltd. Published by: © Bulgarian Diplomatic Institute, 2023 http://bdi.bg Facebook: Bulgarian Diplomatic Institute Sofia ISSN 2815-4878 (Online) CONTENTS 2022-2023 – Unprecedented Energy Changes Well Beyond the Expectations…........................................................................... 6 Introduction to the Edition by Slavtcho Neykov The RePowerEU Plan and Energy Security in Southeast Europe......................... 9 Alexios-Marios Lyberopoulos, Ambassador of the Hellenic Republic to Bulgaria A New Balance of Power – Europe’s Energy Transition amidGeopolitical Upheaval.................................................................................. 23 Kristian Ruby, Secretary General at Eurelectric The Way from the Energy Union Framework Strategy to the RePowerEU Plan....................................................................................... 34 Zinaida Zlatanova, Liberal Institute for Political Analyses EU’s Energy and Climate Policies at a Time of Adverse Geopolitics……...…..… 45 Peter Poptchev, PhD, Ambassador (Rtd.), Head of Net Zero Foundation - International Climate Network Oil Markets After the Invasion of Ukraine: Moving Towards Strategic Competition………………........................…………… 62 Irina Patrahau and Lucia van Geuns, The Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS) Loss & Damage Finance and Mitigation Pledges: Priorities for Climate Diplomacy in 2023.............................................................. 75 Marian Feist, PhD and Oliver Geden, PhD, Hertie School’s Centre for Sustainability and Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) The Impact of the Energy Transition and the Global Energy Crisis on EU Technology Leadership Policy................................................................... 85 Yanko Yanakiev, PhD On the Fossil Gas Future of the European Energy Mix....................................... 98 Svetoslav Ivanov, CEO of Overgas Inc. AD The Arduous Path of Decarbonisation in Southeast Europe.............................. 108 Costis Stambolis, Chairman and Executive Director of the Institute of Energy for South - East Europe (IENE) Elements of Cooperation in the Common Policy to Guarantee the Energy Security of the Region of southeast Europe and the example of Bulgaria and Romania................................................................................... 120 Chief Assistant Professor Ivo Tsekov, PhD Energy Modelling of the Electricity System of Bulgaria and the Green Deal Goals – an Update of the Story........................................... 131 Lyubomira Gancheva, Energy expert Geopolitical Projections on the European Electricity Market and their Bulgarian Dimensions......................................................................... 141 Nedko Kosev, PhD Student From Politics to Practice: The Critical Role of Human Capital in Achieving the Renewable Energy Transformation......................................... 153 Veselin Todorov, PhD, Eng., Chairman of the Solar Academy Bulgaria Association Identifying the Links between Policy and Prosumers: Why is Transformation Late and What Led to This Crisis? ................................. 162 Lyubomir Grozdanov, Business Development expert at the Independent Bulgarian Energy Exchange (IBEX) More about the Bulgarian Diplomatic Institute.................................................... 170 More about the Bulgarian co-operation and humanitarian aid............................ 172 The contents of this journal are the authors’ sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the official positions and views of the Bulgarian Diplomatic Institute, as well as the Bulgarian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 2022-2023 – UNPRECEDENTED ENERGY CHANGES WELL BEYOND THE EXPECTATIONS Slavtcho Neykov, Editor-in-Chief Member of the National Consultative Council of the Bulgarian Diplomatic Institute DEAR READERS, Welcome to the 2023 edition of the ENERGY AND CLIMATE DIPLOMACY JOURNAL, issued by the Bulgarian Diplo