Towards Zero Emissions China’s Climate Pathway and its Implications for the Transport Sector Implemented by Supported by 1 Imprint As a federally owned enterprise, GIZ supports the German Government in achieving its objectives in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development. Published by: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Registered offices Bonn and Eschborn, Germany Address Tayuan Diplomatic Office Building 2-5 14 Liangmahe South Street, Chaoyang District 100600, Beijing, PR China T +86-(0)10-8527 5589 F +86-(0)10-8527 5591 E transition-china@giz.de I www.mobility.transition-china.org Project NDC Transport Initiative for Asia (NDC-TIA) is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI) and is supported by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) Responsible Sebastian Ibold (GIZ) E transition-china@giz.de I www.mobility.transition-china.org Authors Sebastian Ibold, Yun Xia Layout Xin Hu, Lang Liu Photo credits Shutterstock / Mindscanner (Front Cover) Shutterstock / David Dennis (Back cover) Maps The maps printed here are intended only for information purposes and in no way constitute recognition under international law of boundaries and territories. GIZ accepts no responsibility for these maps being entirely up to date, correct or complete. All liability for any damage, direct or indirect, resulting from their use is excluded. URL links Responsibility for the content of external websites linked in this publication always lies with their respective publishers. GIZ expressly dissociates itself from such content. Beijing, 2021 2 Contents Background 1 China’s climate pathway 2 China’s current transport sector development 9 Key policies for China’s transport sector development Recommendations Transport emission 13 17 peaking and decarbonization 17 Aligning the transition in the transport and energy sectors 18 The Four Nows! 19 International cooperation 21 strategies 3 Since China’s announcement in late 2020 that it would peak its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and attain carbon neutrality by 2060, the debate on how to decarbonize the transport sector has been heating up. Given growing demand for passenger and freight transport and rising motorization, the sector will be a hard nut to crack. Various decarbonization technologies are already on the table. Among the most promising solutions for reducing emissions and increasing efficiency is electric transport powered by clean energy. But the path to zerocarbon freight, aviation, and maritime transport will be difficult. In order to align the Chinese transport sector with the country’s 2030 and 2060 targets, clear strategies and ambitious measures are needed. This includes not only the adoption of innovative technologies but also an accelerated shift to climatefriendly transport modes and a stronger focus on trip avoidance through holistic urban planning. At the same time, it must be ensured that sector transformation leaves no one behind and remains socially and economically sustainable. International cooperation, the sharing of expertise, and in-depth dialogue can positively contribute to the sustainable and climate-friendly development of the transport sector – in China and elsewhere. This paper provides a general description of the role of the transport sector in achieving China’s carbon peaking and neutrality goals. In addition, it aims to foster debate on the policies, technologies, measures, and partnerships needed to achieve those objectives. This discussion is not exhaustive, however. It focuses on just a few approaches and measures that can help achieve China’s targets. 4 Background Over the past few decades, the People’s urbanization level had reached 60.6%. Republic of China (PRC) has undergone During the same 20-year period, China’s a gross domestic product (GDP) grew from rapid economic and comprehensive transformation. transformation have With come sociothis 1 trillion euros to 13.1 trillion euros. new The draft of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan industries, cities, and infrastructure, as (2021–2025) well as the eradication of absolute 2 , which was approved during the Two Sessions ( 两 会 ) poverty 1. 3 in March 2021, sets an urbanization target Urbanization has played a key role in of 65% for the end of 2025. This means China’s development. In the past 20 that in the next five years alone anoth