Planning and prospects for renewable power NORTH AFRICA © IRENA 2023 Unless otherwise stated, material in this publication may be freely used, shared, copied, reproduced, printed and/or stored, provided that appropriate acknowledgement is given of IRENA as the source and copyright holder. Material in this publication that is attributed to third parties may be subject to separate terms of use and restrictions, and appropriate permissions from these third parties may need to be secured before any use of such material. REPORT CITATION IRENA (2023), Planning and prospects for renewable power: North Africa, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. ISBN: 978-92-9260-485-1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was drafted by Sebastian Hendrik Sterl, Pablo Carvajal, Pauline Fulcheri and Mohamed A. Eltahir Elabbas under the guidance of Asami Miketa (IRENA) and Dolf Gielen (ex-IRENA), in close collaboration with Mohamed Bassam Ben Ticha (consultant), who conducted major development work with IRENA on the System Planning Test model for North Africa and provided modelling support. The report also received input from Bilal Hussain, Daniel Russo, Tommaso Tiozzo Bastianello and Farmata Diallo (IRENA). Valuable review and consultation were provided by Chokri Zammali (Société Tunisienne de l’Électricité et du Gaz), Naima Chabouni (Mines ParisTech), Arman Aghahosseini (Lappeenranta University of Technology), Bob van der Zwaan (TNO), and IRENA colleagues Herib Blanco, Laura Al-Katiri, Ahmed Badr, Mirjam Reiner, Imen Gherboudj, Mohammed Sanusi Nababa, Rabia Ferroukhi, Binu Parthan, Gayathri Nair, Simon Benmarraze, Barbara Jinks, Paul Komor, Zoheir Hamedi and Reem Korban. For further information or to provide feedback: info@irena.org. This report is available for download: www.irena.org/publications. DISCLAIMER This publication and the material herein are provided “as is”. All reasonable precautions have been taken by IRENA to verify the reliability of the material in this publication. However, neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents or other third-party content providers provides a warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied, and accept no responsibility or liability for any consequence of use of the publication or material herein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of all Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS...........................................................................................................8 ABOUT THIS REPORT.....................................................................................................9 KEY TAKEAWAYS......................................................................................................... 11 1 REGIONAL OVERVIEW AND KEY DATA........................................................................ 13 1.1 Contribution of this report...................................................................................................13 1.2 North Africa’s energy supply is highly dependent on fossil fuels.....................................13 1.3 North African countries show diverging patterns of electricity in final energy demand������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������15 1.4 Electricity demand in North Africa is still growing strongly, requiring substantial power sector investments ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������16 1.5 Most North African countries have ambitious renewable electricity targets..................19 1.6 Solar and wind power in North Africa are expanding and getting cheaper................. 22 1.7 Enhanced flexibility promotes integration of solar and wind into North African power systems�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 25 2 SCENARIOS FOR NORTH AFRICA’S ELECTRICIT