Oil 2023 Analysis and forecast to 2028 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries, 11 association countries and beyond. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Source: IEA. All rights reserved. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org IEA member countries: IEA association countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Republic of Türkiye United Kingdom United States Argentina Brazil China Egypt India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Ukraine The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA Oil 2023 Abstract Abstract PAGE | 3 I EA. CC BY 4.0. The global energy crisis has moved energy security to the fore of the international policy agenda and boosted the momentum behind the deployment of clean energy technologies. Investment in clean energy is accelerating at a faster rate than for fossil fuels, helping bring peak oil demand into view. Oil 2023, the IEA’s medium-term outlook, provides a comprehensive overview of evolving oil supply and demand dynamics through to 2028. The report examines how a stronger drive by governments towards a low-emissions future and changes in behaviour will impact oil market fundamentals in the coming years. Oil 2023 explores some of the challenges and uncertainties that lie ahead, including upstream investment, sources of new supply growth, spare capacity and shifting patterns of oil demand. It also provides insights as to how these changing dynamics will affect refining and trade flows. Oil 2023 Acknowledgements, contributors and credits Acknowledgements, contributors and credits This publication was prepared by the Oil Industry and Markets Division of the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security. The principal authors are, in alphabetical order, Yuya Akizuki, Alexander Bressers, Joel Couse, Ciarán Healy, Peg Mackey, David Martin, Jacob Messing and Jenny Thomson. Julien Canu and Luis Fernando Rosa provided statistical support and essential research assistance. Toril Bosoni, head of OIMD, led the analysis and edited the Report. Keisuke Sadamori, director of the IEA’s Directorate of Energy Markets and Security, provided expert guidance and advice. Deven Mooneesawmy provided essential editorial assistance. The report benefited greatly from contributions from other experts within the IEA, including Yasmine Arsalane, Alessandro Blasi, Laura Cozzi, Paolo Frankl, Tim Gould, Paul Grimal, Jérôme Hilaire, Christophe McGlade, Jeremy Moorhouse, Apostolos Petropoulos and Gianluca Tonolo. PAGE | 4 I EA. CC BY 4.0. The IEA Communications and Digital Office provided production and launch support. Particular thanks go to Jad Mouawad and his team; Astrid Dumond, Oliver Joy, Jethro Mullen, Therese Walsh and Isabelle Nonain-Semelin. Diane Munro edited the report. Oil 2023 Table of contents Table of contents Executive summary .................................................................................................................. 8 Demand.................................................................................................................................... 11 Global summary .................................................................................................................... 11 Fundamentals ....................................................................................................................... 14 Energy transition gathers pace ............................................................................................. 17 Petrochemicals power ahead, China takes centre stage .....