Critical Minerals Outlooks Comparison A Report by the International Energy Forum and The Payne Institute of Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines  A report by the International Energy Forum and The Payne Institute of Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines August 2023 ____________________________________________________________________________ Written and produced by: Juliet Akamboe jsakamboe@mines.edu Ebenezer Manful-Sam manfulsam@mines.edu Felix Ayaburi fzayaburi@mines.edu Mason Hamilton mason.hamilton@ief.org Morgan Bazilian mbazilian@mines.edu ____________________________________________________________________________ About the International Energy Forum The International Energy Forum (IEF) is the world's largest international organization of energy ministers from 71 countries and includes both producing and consuming nations. The IEF has a broad mandate to examine all energy issues including oil and gas, clean and renewable energy, sustainability, energy transitions and new technologies, data transparency, and energy access. Through the Forum and its associated events, officials, industry executives, and other experts engage in a dialogue of increasing importance to global energy security and sustainability. ____________________________________________________________________________ About The Payne Institute The mission of the Payne Institute at Colorado School of Mines is to provide world-class scientific insights, helping to inform and shape public policy on earth resources, energy, and environment. The Institute was established with an endowment from Jim and Arlene Payne, and seeks to link the strong scientific and engineering research and expertise at Mines with issues related to public policy and national security. The Payne Institute extends to public policy Mines’ conviction that energy and the environment must – and can – fruitfully coexist. Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................... 3 Key Findings .............................................................................................................. 5 Aluminum ............................................................................................................................. 5 Cobalt................................................................................................................................... 7 Copper ................................................................................................................................. 9 Graphite ............................................................................................................................. 11 Lithium ............................................................................................................................... 13 Neodymium ........................................................................................................................ 15 Nickel ................................................................................................................................. 16 Silver .................................................................................................................................. 18 Energy Scenarios .................................................................................................... 20 Climate Outcome Driven .................................................................................................... 20 Shared Economic Pathways .............................................................................................. 20 Speed of Transition and Technological Progress .............................................................. 20 Technology mixes ................................................................................................... 20 Other technologies with influence ...................................................................................... 21 Resource Requirements ......................................................................................... 21 Top Down vs. Bottom Up ................................................................................................... 23 Intensity and Resource Efficiency Assumptions ................................................................ 23 Sub-Technologies and Chemistry Shifts .................................................................