February 2023 Industrial Electrification in U.S. States An industrial subsector and state-level techno-economic analysis Ali Hasanbeigi, Ph.D. - Global Efficiency Intelligence Lynn A. Kirshbaum and Blaine Collison - David Gardiner and Associates Foreword by the authors This report is a follow-up study to our previous report, “Electrifying U.S. Industry: A Technology- and Process-Based Approach to Decarbonization.” In the previous report, we studied the electrification potential for U.S. industry across 12 sub-sectors at the national level. In this report, we analyze the electrification potential for the same 12 sub-sectors, but at the state level, focusing on 20 states. The differences in industries, energy prices, and electricity grid emissions factors across different states are considered in this study to determine the electrification potential. Acknowledgements This report was made possible with support from the ClimateWorks Foundation. The authors would like to thank Rebecca Dell, Dan Fahey, and Lauren Marshall of the ClimateWorks Foundation, Claire Dougherty and David Gardiner of David Gardiner and Associates, Jibran Zuberi of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Ed Rightor of ACEEE, Colin McMillan of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Sara Baldwin of Energy Innovation, and John Marano of JM Energy Consulting for their valuable input to this study and/or their insightful comments on earlier versions of this document. Disclaimer Global Efficiency Intelligence, LLC and David Gardiner and Associates have provided the information in this publication for informational purposes only. Although great care has been taken to maintain the accuracy of the information collected and presented, Global Efficiency Intelligence, LLC and David Gardiner and Associates do not make any express or implied warranty concerning such information. Any estimates contained in the publication reflect Global Efficiency Intelligence, LLC’s and David Gardiner and Associates’ current analyses and expectations based on available data and information. Any reference to a specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not constitute or imply an endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by Global Efficiency Intelligence, LLC and David Gardiner and Associates. The report does not necessarily represent the perspectives of all Renewable Thermal Collaborative (RTC) members or sponsors. An organization’s participation in this project does not represent an endorsement of the full contents of this report. This document may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgment is requested. https://www.globalefficiencyintel.com https://www.renewablethermal.org Industrial Electrification in U.S. States 1 Executive Summary The United States set an economy-wide target to reduce its net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030 and set a goal to reach 100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035. Meeting these goals will require a concentrated effort to develop and deploy clean technologies across sectors. The U.S.’s emissions reduction targets place a new emphasis on industrial emissions, highlighting the need for commercialization and deployment of cleaner industrial technologies. Unleashing US$369 billion in climate and clean energy incentives, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provides powerful tailwinds for achieving these climate change mitigation targets. The industrial sector accounts for about a quarter of energy use and GHG emissions in the U.S. While emissions from electricity generation continue to decline, thermal energy needs in industry, especially for process heating, are a significant challenge for climate change mitigation efforts. There is a significant opportunity to decarbonize the industrial sector by shifting away from carbon-intensive fossil fuels to clean sources such as electrification, where low- or zero-carbon electricity is used. As can be seen in Figure ES1, electrifying just the processes included in the study has the potential to realize significant emissions reductions throughout the country. Figure ES1. Change in emissions from select industrial process electrification in 2050 (Source: this study) This report is a follow-up study to our previous report, “Electrifying U.S. Industry: A Technology- and Process-Based Approach to Decarbonization.” In the previous report, we studied industrial electrification potential at the na